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Hurricane Season Is Not Over Yet: Multiple Areas Are Being Monitored for Tropical Development in the Week Ahead

Atlantic ocean

At a Glance

  • Two areas bear watching for possible tropical development in the Atlantic Basin in the week ahead.
  • The Eastern Pacific Ocean also has a couple of candidates for tropical development off Mexico’s coast..
The Atlantic hurricane season has been quiet since Lorenzo exited the tropics in early October, but a couple of areas in the Atlantic Basin are now being monitored for development in the week ahead – a reminder that the hurricane season officially runs through Nov. 30.

System No. 1

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has highlighted an area in the western Caribbean Sea for a low chance of development over the next five days.

A broad area of low pressure is forming over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, and it’s forecast to move westward toward Central America early in the week ahead. Some development is possible if that area of low pressure moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea near the coasts of Honduras, Guatemala and Belize, the NHC said.

Regardless of development, heavy rain is expected over portions of Central America late this weekend through early in the week ahead.

The western Caribbean Sea is one of the typical areas we watch for tropical development in October.

System No. 2

The NHC has also highlighted an area off the coast of western Africa for a medium chance of development over the next five days.

A tropical wave is predicted to emerge over the eastern Atlantic Ocean after exiting Africa on Sunday.

This is not a climatologically favorable area for tropical development in October, but the NHC said some development of this system is possible before conditions become unfavorable by midweek.

The system is forecast to move westward to northwestward toward the Cabo Verde Islands over the next few days.

Eastern Pacific Also Bears Watching

A broad area of low pressure several hundred miles southwest of the Baja California Peninsula is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms.

The NHC has given this system a high chance of development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by Sunday. However, it’s predicted to move over cooler waters and run into stronger upper-level winds by Monday, a combination of factors which could cause it to weaken or dissipate.

Another system off the Pacific coast of Central America has been highlighted by the NHC for a medium chance of development in the next five days. A tropical depression could form by midweek as it moves west-northwestward just off the southeastern coast of Mexico.

Depending how close this second system moves in relation to Mexico’s coast, locally heavy rain and gusty winds could be a threat along parts of the coastline in the week ahead.


This article was originally published on weather

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