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Subtropical storm possible off Northeast later today; National Hurricane Center watching 3 systems


A subtropical storm is possible off the Northeast later today.

A special advisory from the National Hurricane Center at 8:30 a.m. said the system that formed as two low-pressure systems combined has a 60 percent chance for development over the next 48 hours.

It was a rapid change in intensification. The system had a 30 percent for development at the 8 a.m. advisory.

It’s not the only system being monitored by the National Hurricane Center. Two other systems have popped up in the Atlantic basin, according to the 8 a.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

One formed in the Caribbean while the third is expected to move off the coast of Africa. Both have a 20 percent chance for development over the next five days.

Subtropical storm possible off U.S. Northeast coast later today

Early-morning visible satellite imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms have continued to become better organized near the center of a low-pressure system located about 200 miles south-southeast of Martha’s Vineyard.

If this trend continues, advisories will likely be issued for this system as a subtropical storm later this morning.

Upper-level winds are expected to increase over the system during the weekend while the low weakens and moves away from the northeastern United States.

This low is already producing storm-force winds, and is expected to continue meandering off the coast through tonight, producing strong winds, coastal flooding, heavy rainfall and rough surf along portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States coasts.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours…low…60 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days…low…60 percent.
Development possible of Caribbean system if it remains over water

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western Caribbean Sea during the weekend.

This system is forecast to move westward toward Central America early next week, and some development is possible if the low remains over water while moving near the coasts of Honduras, Guatemala and Belize.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

Tropical wave moving off Africa

A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad area of low pressure, is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Sunday.

Although the far eastern Atlantic is not climatologically favorable for tropical cyclone formation this late in the hurricane season, some development of this system appears possible early next week while it moves generally northwest near or over the Cabo Verde Islands.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

What’s happening out there and what can we expect?

“Two areas we have been monitoring for tropical or subtropical development just off the East Coast of the United States to east of Bermuda are running out of time,” AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said.

One such area, a non-tropical storm located southeast of New England appears as though it will fail to gather tropical characteristics before being ejected to the cold waters of the North Atlantic later this weekend.

“That storm will still produce tropical-storm-force winds in southeastern New England and waters just off the mid-Atlantic coast,” Kottlowski said.

Meteorologists are also watching areas from the Caribbean to off the coast of Africa over the next week for possible tropical trouble.

“A somewhat stronger tropical wave is forecast to move off the Africa coast this weekend and move westward,” Kottlowski said.

There remains a broad area of weak counterclockwise winds over the western Caribbean and Central America. This feature is called a gyre.

Occasionally, as tropical waves move into this gyre, they may have a greater chance at becoming a tropical depression or storm, since there is extra moisture in place and there already is a weak circulation to begin with.

“As a result, the area from the western Caribbean to Central America, including adjacent eastern Pacific waters, could give birth to a tropical system or two through next week,” Kottlowski said.

“However, the chance of tropical storm formation is probably significantly higher on the Pacific side as opposed to the Caribbean side,” Kottlowski added.

This article was originally published on tcpalm

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